Climate Change, Reverse Dutch Disease, and Third World Industrialization
by James Miraflor

Climate change is one of the “great pessimisms” of the 21st century, to quote Matt Ridley – author of the “The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves (2010). Indeed, it is the primary threat to humanity’s vision of a bright future of technological prosperity. And for very good reasons. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a global average temperature increase of 1–4°C (relative to 1990–2000) may result to partial de-glaciation of the Greenland ice sheet. Add to this the possible contribution of partial de-glaciation of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, sea level may  rise by 4 to 6 meters (13 to 20 ft) or more, with disastrous consequences to small island states and coastal settlements.

Moreover, weather patterns across the globe will be disturbed, radically changing livelihoods and economic activities. A particular climate-induced economic change we ought to be watching is the transition of some developed countries from having a humid continental or tundra climate to tropical or rain-forest, simultaneous with desertification in agriculturally-rich developing countries. This is already happening now, as climate change render previously agriculturally-viable lands to lands not fit for horticulture.

This gave me an insight. While it is true that this will have debilitating effects on the economies of the South, I can also see an economic opportunity which we developing countries can maximize – at least in the medium-run.

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